Cash From Gaming

Monetize. It is a horrible word, but one seemingly on everybody's lips. If people like doing something, other people will try to find a way to monetize it. In some long-forgotten past, people used to play games for fun, without any thought of profit. No longer. Selling games was one way to monetizing them, and renting them another. Selling tickets to spectators is a source of revenue, and gambling another. More recently, virtual economies in virtual realities like Second Life have grabbed the attention as a way of monetizing what for most people is a form of recreation. Of course, once you monetize recreation, it stops being recreation and starts being a business. Just consider the way that gambling has exacerbated the corruption of sport. For increasing numbers of people, Second Life is a source of income, not a form of recreation. As monetizing is the the modern mantra, it is inevitable that more recreation will be turned into revenue. First-person shoot 'em up internet video games has just been added to that list. Check out Kwari, a new online game currently in beta. The idea is beguiling simple: if you shoot someone in the game, your bank account gets topped up; if you get hit in the game, your account takes a hit too. The makers of Kwari say they will only generate income from selling the ammunition needed to play the game, which I guess means their business model is the equivalent of a virtual arms dealer. Of course, the prospect of making money should turn Kwari into a magnet for cheats and fraudsters worldwide. This begs the question of how the makers intend to manage the revenue assurance of a complicated fast-moving internet game with many micro transactions and lots of communication between server and client. To be fair to them, they have been refreshingly honest about the risks, and comprehensive in explaining how they intend to counter them, see here. More established internet businesses could learn a lot from Kwari's example that such risks need to be openly recognized and countered, not ignored.

So next time you feel like playing a shoot 'em up, you have the chance to put some money at stake. Just stump up some cash for ammo, and get playing. I know what you're thinking. "How many shots did I fire?" In all the excitement, you may lose track. Being that this is the internet, the most powerful monetizing machine in the world, and would blow your bank account clean away, you've got to ask yourself a question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk? ;)

The Inclusive Queen

The Queen's Christmas Broadcast for 2007 did not disappoint. It was nicely constructed around the theme of continuity within the context of change, as exemplified by neatly integrating excerpts from the Queen's first televised Christmas Broadcast in 1957. Given I was blogging about just the same theme the other day, does this mean I think like royalty? (or at least like a royal adviser?) ;) The Queen's speech also gave a balanced message that linked the importance of family and the values exemplified by Christ, and taught by all religions, with the need to take personal responsibility for countering the ills of social exclusion. I am glad the Queen's speech is on YouTube, where people can see and hear it whenever they like. It seems to me that the Queen's message is not just for Christmas, but for the whole year round. Perhaps the Queen should consider broadcasting more often, or better still, starting her own video blog...

Christmas Past, Present and Future

I had been searching around for inspiration as a pondered what to blog about over the festive season. After struggling for a while, I turned to royalty. It was a good decision. Queen Elizabeth II has broadcast a televised message each Christmas for the last 50 years. When she began, television was a new-fangled medium, controlled by the elite but supplied to the masses. Now, 50 years on, we are seeing this relationship enter a new phase, where the masses now make as well as consume television, and the elite depend on popularity to retain their place. In the meantime, the Queen has managed to steer a unique course between past and present. She retains her position by virtue of birth, without any serious republican challenge, and without needing to seriously compromise her integrity in the face of the ever-creeping commercializaiton of every aspect of society. At the same time, she and her advisors have seamlessly integrated the latest innovations within a context of continuity. So it should come as no surprise that these days you can find on The Royal Channel on YouTube, including the first televised Queen's speech, made in the year 1957. The message she gave then, about retaining the best of the past as we embrace the future, remains very apt today. I recommend you take a look.

Best wishes for the season,

Eric

The Price Of Professionalism

Along with the Christmas cards I have received a most unwelcome delivery that I always receive at this time of year: the reminder that my annual fees are due from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. UK£272 (US$540) is the price I pay for the privilege of calling myself a chartered accountant for another year. That is not a small amount of money. However, another point is worth making: you get what you pay for. The more value that a profession, membership of an institute, and a qualification generates for its members, the greater the sustainable level of fees. New members will be attracted because they will conclude the cost of entry is worthwhile. People will remain members because they find in actual practice the cost of membership is worthwhile. Membership costs include monetary and non-monetary elements. Fees and the cost of ongoing education are monetary, the time spent in continuous professional education is non-monetary. At the same time, to buy influence, expertise and a top-notch educational and qualification program, that ensures not everybody who wants to pass is allowed to pass, takes money. There is a virtuous circle here: value for members gets recycled into fees for the professional bodies which gets recycled into value for the members. What then is the price people will pay to be a revenue assurance professional? Having established the link between cost and value, we can ask the same question another way: what would be the value of being a recognized professional?

This is a question about economics. It is a matter of supply and demand. There is demand for revenue assurance staff, but how can you alter the supply by creating barriers to entry and increasing the value of those who have achieved a certain level of measurable competence. If everybody who wants a qualification, gets the qualification, then the value of the qualification will tend towards zero. If the qualification is not a reliable indicator that the holder will be better at their job than people without the qualification, the value will tend toward zero. If the qualification is too hard to get, then it will not be recongnized and too little investment will be made in sustaining it, which will undermine its value. Finally, if people do not intend to use the qualification to get value, then it will not have value in practice, for example, if qualified people do not really intend to pursue a career in revenue assurance, but instead expect to get promoted up the ranks of their company by learning and adopting roles where their revenue assurance qualifications are irrelevant.

I have trained a few people in my time, and my honest opinion is that a minority of those people were seriously thinking of long-term careers in revenue assurance. If they were asked to spend thousands of pounds educating themselves in revenue assurance, they would not pay it. In those circumstances, it follows that, even at this time of goodwill, their will be no fairy godmother, Santa Claus, benevolent employer or whomever who would be prepared to pay for it either. Whoever pays for education, they expect to get a real return on it. Short-term thinking precludes significant returns. Only people who think sufficiently long-term could justify a significant investment in education.

Of the people I trained, all of them were pretty much glad to get the training. Training is one of those things people like, especially if they do not pay for it, and better still if their employer pays for their time spent in training. This means the value of training cannot be measured from the feedback of participants. Or rather, the feedback of people who had to pay out of their pocket or give up their own free time would likely be more meaningful than anyone else's. This means feedback is not a good measure of whether a course meets a particular customer’s needs, especially if the customer is the business, and not the individual trainee. It is also important to question how satisfied people would be if they were forced to take an examination at the end of training, and a significant proportion of those people were to fail the exam. The difference between offering training and offering a qualification is the drawing of a line commensurate to the quality of the qualification. Too lax, and the qualification is worth little. Too strict, and people will not question it or refuse to submit to it.

From my own experience of giving training, the key factors that determine the true value of education (as opposed to the factors that are most likely to lead to positive feedback from training course participants) are:

  • being specific to the customer's needs;
  • providing education and, in particular, being able to answer spontaneous questions by drawing on the genuine real-world experience of the tutor; and
  • keeping the education cost-effective.

Specificity is vital to effective education. Telling people things they find interesting, stimulating or thought-provoking is not the same as educating people in things they need to know or stretching their abilities. A junior analyst may gladly sit in a training workshop listening to a discussion of how to influence CEO's or making pricing decisions, but such training is irrelevant to their job. Similarly, technical specifics are vital for some forms of training, but not others. In abstract, the principles used to assure a retail wireless voice usage product are no different to those relevant to a wholesale leased line product. However, the technical details of the products are very different. Managers may need to learn abstract principles, especially if they work for providers that work across many segments. More junior staff need details, not abstraction. Some of the technological detail may be specific to the business, for example if systems were developed in-house, which puts a very real limit to the value that can be gained from external training. There are also different techniques for how to perform assurance, so there is also the need to tailor the skills taught depending on the techniques the staff are expected to utilize. Some RA experts might like to reduce everything to mining data from a warehouse which in turn takes feeds from all the source systems; there is nothing wrong with that approach in itself, but there are other techniques that belong under the banner of revenue assurance and which may work better in certain circumstances. Other techniques that might be covered in education include risk appraisal, statistics, workflow mapping or soft skills like interviewing for knowledge elicitation. It is obvious that not all RA employees need to know every technique. In some businesses the RA department is exclusively engaged in automated data analysis or exclusively in process review, so the skills taught to those departments will not cover many of the techniques that would be relevant to an RA department in another business. There are many suppliers that offer standardised introductory training for revenue assurance. These courses are most generic in nature, apply to the largest cross-section of RA employees, can be repeated over and over and hence generate the best returns for the effort spent in developing the course. There are far fewer suppliers who offer tailored training or more advanced courses. In pre-determined course, the question is how well the standard course will correspond to the customer's specific needs. It may be better to get tailor-made training, if tailor-made training is available. In any subject, somebody has to go first; just because it would be nice to be trained by someone else does not mean that there is someone else who is competent to give the training and willing to do so for the money on offer.

Genuine real-world experience is a major problem for education. It is hard to learn from a teacher who does not understand the subject they teach. Many people have practical experience of some aspects of revenue assurance. Fewer people have practical experience of most aspects, and nobody has personal hands-on experience of doing them all. Even the most knowledgeable person does not have current hands-on experience of applying all kinds of skills to all kinds of RA product in all kinds of telco. To exacerbate the problem, the issues faced in different parts of the world vary greatly. Traditionally, RA in the US focused on the challenge posed by the extremely complicated area of inter-carrier traffic management and settlement. I recently wrote an article for the TMF which highlighted how Latin American operators tend to give a higher priority to assuring wholesale traffic than European carriers because of the relative perceived risk in each region. At best, the cumulative hands-on experience of the tutor, combined with the tutor's experience of managing other people's work, will cover most RA skills and most telco products, though keeping that knowledge up to date with the latest technology will always be a serious challenge. So one question you customer of education needs to ask themselves is how deep and current the knowledge of the tutor needs to be, especially for any specific skills or technologies they need covered. I have worked with consulting businesses that, quite sensibly, have offered several individuals, each with different skillsets, to run distinct modules within a single training course. Training may not be the core skill of the individual experts, but to maintain the quality the training may be overseen, constructed and guided by an expert in training. That way there is always a person on hand who can answer questions based on genuine current experience. The number of people needed to cover the different areas of expertise will depend on how broad and varied the customer requirements are. Of course, the obvious downside is that training from several experts will be more expensive than that from a lone tutor.

In an ideal world, people with extensive hands-on experience in many areas of revenue assurance will deliver inexpensive courses widely. The problem, as you will have appreciated, is cost. Hands-on experience does not come cheap. A tutor should reasonably expect to demand a higher price if their experience is broader or deeper than another tutor's, so it should follow that the tutor with experience broader and deeper than anyone else's would be most expensive of all. However, someone with those talents presumably could make more money by doing revenue assurance! The tutor also needs to actually do revenue assurance to keep their skills and knowledge current, as there is no academic infrastructure to percolate the experience of others into education. So I do not believe any individual can claim to be a catch-all expert with genuine deep knowledge and current experience across all aspects of revenue assurance. The field of revenue assurance is not medicine or law or accountancy; just because it is broad and complicated and staff need training does not mean that there is enough money in the discipline to justify a training company making the investment needed to develop materials and staff required to provide a genuinely high-quality training program across the full spread of RA techniques as applicable to all products. However, even if revenue assurance was medicine or law or accountancy, it would still seem strange for a lone individual to claim to be able to give comprehensive training across all aspects. There is a need to balance the extent to which any paid education course is tailored to the customer's requirements and the extent to which the tutor has both domain knowledge and the skills to provide that course, with the amount of money the customer is willing to pay. There is no perfect answer to that compromise; but there will always be a compromise between specificity, tutor experience and cost.

There is one other observation I would like to make about training, based on my experiences as a manager in several big businesses. People are generally very positive to the idea of receiving training, but they may not be clear as to what they want to gain from training. Some people want to do their job better, some want career advancement within the business, others want career advancement elsewhere. A qualification that is recognized is vital to improving career prospects, but may not be useful in terms of on-the-job performance. In contrast, training that is very useful for improving job performance may be of no aid in advancing the trainee's career. I doubt many people who currently receive revenue assurance training have a realistic aspiration to get a better revenue assurance job elsewhere. There are not that many telcos, and not that many jobs in revenue assurance. Worse still, there are relatively few places where a large number of telcos are geographically co-located. This means the only way to advance a career in revenue assurance would be to very amenable to moving home and family, often to another country, to take the next good job on offer. In practice, many people take revenue assurance jobs as an entry into a nearby business, not because they are dedicated to revenue assurance as a discipline or have the intention to move home later in life. Career advancement within a business should be based on the employee’s results, and not on the basis of some relatively trivial training course. My training as an accountant was long and intensive. Many failed of my peers failed to complete it. It was not a few days in a classroom after which everybody receives a certificate. Employees need to be clear as to how significantly their skills and abilities really are enhanced, in terms of both perceived and actual value, as a result of any educational activity they engage in. That leaves improving job performance as the final reason for training. How much job performance is improved will be entirely determined by how specific the course is, and how much relevant practical knowledge can be imparted by the tutor. For senior RA staff, the training should not be a substitute for clear communications from executives as to what they expect and want from RA. For junior staff, training should not be a substitute for guidance from their line managers.

As a manager in revenue assurance, I often put more emphasis on informal kinds of learning than classroom-based teaching. By informal learning I mean activities where staff learn from each other and are encouraged to search for and find answers from all sorts of resources, whether labelled “revenue assurance” or not. For example, if somebody needs to learn statistical skills, they can get exposure to materials which will help with statistics, if they want to learn how other people solved a certain kind of revenue assurance problem, they can communicate with colleagues inside and outside the business, if they want to know about a product they get trained by the experts on that product in their own business, and if they want to know what their colleagues in the RA department do, they are encouraged to spend a lunchtime listening to a presentation from a colleague, and to give one in turn, and to share the information via the corporate intranet and similar resources. Often an employee's peers and informal contacts can deliver better education than external tutors, and do so at little or no cost. In addition, informal education places the emphasis and responsibility for improvement with the recipient, and hence generates the best returns for the people who will value education most.

Here comes the unpleasant bit. I do think that currently the model of copying other professions has much value to revenue assuranct. It will never be a profession like accounting or law, because there is not enough money it and there will never be enough people doing it. Arguably, it requires a hybrid of many skills, so it would be unrealistic for its practitioners to be as highly skilled as individuals working in more focused professions. Informal education and development is the natural stage of evolution for revenue assurance at present, not the codification of a discipline which lacks an academic infrastructure and lacks the economic means to create one. This blog is my own small way of taking an alternative way of promoting the discussion and education of revenue assurance; I try to practice what I preach.

Finally, you probably appreciate that I have provided RA training from time to time. However, in general I do not regularly pursue it as a source of revenue. It is just too hard to provide a high-quality course that really meets the needs of individual customers without putting a lot more time and effort in than can be justified by a competitive fee. If others do, that is up to them. If they can earn even more by selling qualifications, let them do so. The market will decide what the training and the qualification is worth, not me. My only advice is simple: people should try to ensure they get what they pay for, expecting more is unrealistic, and getting less is always a risk.

Up To No Good

The speed of ADSL services is not an exact science. However, that does not stop ISPs trying to link speed with price, at least in the minds of customers. The problem is that whilst ISPs can do little better than offer services that might be best categorized as "quite fast", "pretty fast", "not as fast", "faster", "even faster still" or "give us a break, you cannot possibly want faster than this", a consumer might reasonably want to know what speed they will get. Because an ISP is never very sure what speed the customer will get, any speeds quoted must be ballpark estimates. Except, they are not. Using a standard marketing ploy, ISPs have instead relied upon the up to formulation to explain what speed they offer. Up to 2Mb, up to 8Mb, up to 20Mb... everything is stated up to. Instead of being told what ballpark they are in, consumers are instead shown a map with a line showing how far the ball might go, if a steroid-taking Barry Bonds is at bat, he connects with a 100mph zinger, and has assistance from a hurricane-force tailwind. Now consumers are not daft. They know that using the words "up to" means they can guarantee they will never get more and probably can expect a lot less. The problem is there comes a point where a lot less is unacceptably less, especially if you can end up in situations where a service described as up to 8Mb might turn out to be slower than somebody else's up to 2Mb service. In what is turning out to be an unusually busy Christmas period, the UK regulator, Ofcom, has responded to its consumer panel (a bunch of people asked to think on behalf of consumers because presumably consumers cannot think for themselves) and agreed there may be a need to intervene and do something about it. Ofcom is not entirely sure what it should do about it, but is keen to do it anyhow. BBC News came up with a concise explanation of the story you can read here or see here. Those of you who prefer to check your own facts, can see the letter from Ed Richards, Ofcom Chief Exec, to the consumer panel here.

Of course there is one number associated with broadband that is never stated as up to. That is the price. I wonder how much disgruntled customers would pay if it was left up to them to decide...

Elvis Owners Threaten Jailhouse Rock

They never rest at Sony BMG, the world's least friendly entertainment company, not even at Christmas time. So when Cargo Records planned the UK release of some 50 year-old recordings by Elvis Presley, it was time to call the Sony BMG lawyers and start quibbling on whether any of the recordings were slightly under 50 years old, and hence still protected under UK copyright. As a result, Cargo has decided not to risk a costly legal battle, and has instead put the release of their Elvis album on hold.

Imagine the scene, if you will, 50 years ago. A lean, taut young Elvis has just finished in the studio. He smiles and asks his new manager, "Colonel" Tom Parker what he thought about the tracks they have just recorded. Parker responds: "fabulous, these will make you a big star, so we better be careful that we label the dates correctly 'cos otherwise the lawyers will be arguing about copyright long after we are both dead." That is the love of music for you. And lawyers. The love of music and lawyers. And money. The love of music and lawyers and money. Yup. You can hear it on every track. Or you could, if they released the album. Well, you can, so long as you are willing to pay for whatever album Sony BMG has the recordings on, if they do, because it is their copyright still. Or not. Nobody can be sure. If only they did put more effort into pedantically ensuring the dates were noted correctly, then Sony BMG would have nothing to worry about ;) Of course, this problem only occurs in the wild west of UK intellectual property law. Over in the US, they keep solving the problem by putting back the dates on when copyright lapses, so it will be a few decades before anyone in the US can listen to Elvis music copyright free. Elvis never toured outside of the US, apart from a few concerts in Canada. The supposed reason is that Colonel Parker did not have a valid US passport. How strange then, that his music will soon be free, but not in the Land of the Free.

Sony BMG are going down fighting. Because they are going down. If more big artists follow the path blazed by Radiohead in giving away their music for whatever price people want to pay, and just not caring if people copy it, then Sony BMG's profits will evaporate even faster than they have in the last few years. Perhaps in 200 years Sony BMG will still be arguing in a US court about when Elvis recorded "Jailhouse Rock", in some vain attempt to squeeze a bit more money from it. I wonder, did those lads in Radiohead think to keep a careful note of when they recorded their music? Smart American customers, of course, will simply buy abroad and evade the legal barriers that way. In the meantime, I will be listening to lovely free music, courtesy of people who just give it away. Forget the scrooges at Sony BMG, and remember on Christmas Eve to download the tremendous "Letter From God To Man" from the MySpace page of Dan Le Sac vs. Scroobius Pip. It is free. In case you missed that, it is free. Free music. If you do not understand by now, it can only be because you work for Sony BMG and struggle to come to terms with the idea. The song is a remix of a Radiohead track, so I suppose what goes around comes around. Music begets music. Freedom begets freedom. Peace and love... you get the idea. Christmas miracles really do happen :)

The Knowledge In The Network

Stock market valuations are a funny thing. J.M. Keynes thought people, as often as not, decided their valuations not on the basis of how much an investment was worth, but on the basis of how much other people thought the investment was worth. Extend the logic a little further, and you stop valuing an investment based of how much other people think it is worth, but on the basis of how much other people think other people think it is worth... and then you can base it on what other people think other people think other people it is worth... and so on.

In George Orwell's 1984, Winston Smith is told by his interrogator that something is true so long as both of them, being that they are alone in Room 101, agree that it is true. If Winston and his interrogator agree they are both floating in mid-air, then it is true that they are both floating in mid-air. The danger is that if one of them stops believing they were floating in mid-air, then presumably they fall down on their bums. Much the same is true of stock market valuations. Share prices can go up and up so long as people believe they will go up and up, but as soon as somebody loses faith, then the share prices can crash back down again.

There is an alternate basis for valuing investments. This is valuation according to business fundamentals. In other words, it means deciding a valuation based on what something is worth, and not on what somebody else thinks it is worth. If you look at the fundamentals, the prevailing valuations for businesses offering on-line advertising are all nonsense. Obviously this means I am arguing that most people think they are worth more than they are. But everybody else is entitled to dance around these businesses, trying to make money and leaving the dance on a high. However, when the music stops, some investors will look around and discover there are far too many people and far too few chairs, so some of them may suffer the same pain in the bum that Winston Smith was risking.

There a few ways in which the fundamentals for on-line advertising do not support current valuations. One is the lack of barriers to entry for on-line targeted communications. This makes fragmentation likely, and the intense competition will drive down prices whilst permitting users to churn to other sites whenever advertising becomes too obtrusive. Another reason is that there is a limit to how effective advertising could ever be, and hence on the total market for advertising, and the appetite for advertising varies a lot. If the world's economy takes a turn for the worse, then advertising budgets will dry up, and there is no guarantee that on-line advertising can be effectively substituted for traditional ads. One factor that preoccupies me, but which is rarely mentioned by the press, is that the knowledge that makes targeting so powerful is in danger of becoming ubiquitous. A lot of companies are putting a lot of effort into gathering essentially the same data. On top of the legitimate and semi-legitimate ways companies gather data, lax security means there a lot of data is available illegitimately as well. For example, working in the mailroom of the UK's Revenue and Customs might be a good way to get lots of personal data that is sent around unencrypted on CDs, including bank accounts for half the UK's population ;) So the competitive advantage that stems from knowledge is eroded as gradually we create a world where everybody knows everything about everybody else.

One of the funniest things about telcos is that their valuations are so poor compared to the Googles and Facebooks of this world, despite the fact that web enterprises cannot exist without the poor old network carrying all the IP traffic. In the content of targeting advertising, the telcos also have the data needed, but tend to lack the mechanism to extract and use it. A lot of data gets transmitted over those telecoms networks (though obviously the UK government should aim to send a bit more that way). The web enterprises rely on a very roundabout way of getting data, using cookies and the like. They lack visibility across all the customer's internet activity, and cookies can be blocked or deleted. In contrast, ISPs see everything that a user is up to. The only thing they lack is the technology to collate that data. Deep packet inspection is that technology.US telco CenturyTel estimates it will increase ARPUs by 5% to 10% through deploying deep packet inspection boxes made by NebuAd. However, gathering data on customers in order to target ads is the tip of the iceberg. The same technology can be used to shape and control traffic, or to provide the facility for "lawful intercept" (also known as "spying"). Read here for a great overview of what deep packet inspection can do and how it will change the world. There are a wide number of reasons why telcos will increasingly invest in deep packet inspection, and increasing revenues is only one of them. I can certainly think of some less desirable outcomes from harnessing all the knowledge that is in the network. One positive, though, will be that it will prompt a sharp correction in the value of the Facebooks of the world...

Easy Money?

Here is a quick revenue assurance quiz for you all. Answers (at least, what I think the answers should be) are given at the end (no scrolling down to read them first!)

A. What is the typical Return On Investment in purchasing new software to detect revenue leakages?

  1. 400%
  2. 500%
  3. 87%
  4. 1000%
  5. 140%
  6. Zero
B. What is the likely payback period when using new software to detect revenue leakages?
  1. 1 year
  2. 1-2 years
  3. 3-6 months
  4. 1 month or never
  5. Never
  6. 4 years
C. Which of these is not a quote from W. Edwards Deming?
  1. “You can't control what you can't measure”
  2. “If you can't describe what you are doing as a process, you don't know what you're doing.”
  3. “If you do not know how to ask the right question, you discover nothing.”
  4. “Whenever there is fear, you will get wrong figures.”
  5. “Does experience help? NO! Not if we are doing the wrong things.”
  6. “Management by results is confusing special causes with common causes.”

Here are the answers (as far as I know):

A. (6) Zero. Purchasing software to detect leakage generates no return. Fixing leaks that were found using the software might generate returns. That depends on whether there are some leaks to find and whether somebody has the time, incentive, pride, professionalism, ability and authority to do something about them.

B. (4) 1 month or never. You either find a lot of things going wrong straight away, or you never find that many things going wrong. So either the project pays off immediately or not at all.

C. (1) “You can’t control what you can’t measure” was by Tom DeMarco.

So what is my point? Well, most sales pitches for revenue assurance tools, software, equipment, whatever, are nonsense. They pretend that revenue assurance is like a new source of ongoing revenues. Every part of that sales pitch is wrong. Here is why.

For a start, revenue assurance is not a new source of revenues. It is only a way to get full value from the old sources of revenues that the business already had. If somebody did not sell the product, build the network etc then there would be no revenues to leak, but these costs get conveniently ignored from the Return On Investment equation for revenue assurance, because they are treated as sunk. Well any investment can be made to look good if you ignore lots of costs on the basis that they were sunk costs. You might as well argue that the only function in telcos that generates a Return On Investment is billing and cash collection, because building a network is a sunk cost, sales is a sunk cost, marketing is a sunk cost… you get the idea.

Then comes the idea that revenue assurance is an ongoing and regular source of additional revenue. Well, it could only be an ongoing source of additional revenue if you think the business is always destined to be wasteful without the constant intervention of an assurance team. That is a bit like saying you need a team to constantly spy on other workers because you cannot trust them to do their jobs properly. Of course people make mistakes, and will go on making mistakes, but if they make lots of mistakes over and over you need to educate them or replace them, not pay someone else to point out their mistakes. People have been known to sometimes get things right even without the help of revenue assurance ;) Which is lucky, because most things in most telcos happen without the help of revenue assurance. When a revenue assurance team generates money for telcos, it happens in one of two ways. The first way is that the revenue assurance people find a big problem that needs to be cleared up. The second way is that the revenue assurance team is responsible for managing a regular recurring problem.

Big problems that need clearing up should get cleared up, generating a lot of value in a short amount of time. These are the big wins they are most likely to be reported by vendors when they boast of the returns generated by using their tools. There is no dispute that these one-off big wins can unlock a lot of value for the business. However, they are not an ongoing source of revenue. It is misleading to present them like that. The problems are individual and specific. Once solved, they can stay solved. And the similarities between one problem and the next may be relatively abstract. So it is very hard to productionize money-generating revenue assurance in the way that vendors would like to pretend. Sure, you can do the same detection checks over and over, but you should not be finding money over and over, unless you are failing to learn lessons and resolve the root causes of why errors occur. Revenue assurance is a subset of operational risk management. Risk implies probability, not certainty. So presenting leakage as a certainty is a nonsense. The best that can be said is that it is probably occurring somewhere, but you cannot be certain if it is occurring, and where it is occurring, until you start looking for it. There is always the likelihood that you will sometimes look for leakage in places where none occurs.

Regular recurring problems that need regular management should not require recurring intervention by the revenue assurance team. You may ask why I think that. First, there is no point viewing something as a problem unless you intend to fix the problem. For example, the problem of recycling suspense is only a problem if you cannot cope with the volumes of suspense and lose money as a result. If you actually expect a certain amount of traffic to regularly fall into suspense, and you employ a team to manage the recycling of this suspense in a systematic way, then this is not a problem for the telco – it is just part of the normal process for that telco. It may not be the most efficient or cost-effective way to arrange processes, but that does not mean it does not get the job done. Second, managing regular operational processes is not the job of a team that is supposed to be doing assurance. Things like recycling suspense, for example, may be a regular operational burden. If so, someone who does a regular operational job should handle it. Assurance must have something to assure; if an “assurance” teams ends up doing an operational job, they are not assuring the job being done, they are doing it. It does not matter what the team is called, it matters what they do. You can give a team called “revenue assurance” the job of regularly managing suspense, but if the same kinds of traffic regularly fall into suspense, and the team regularly performs the same activities to manage and recycle suspense, then are not providing the business with assurance, they are just part of normal business operations. These kind of tasks may be falsely attractive to a revenue assurance team worried about keeping their jobs and the support of executives. The attraction is that the tasks are specific, regular, easy to describe, and the benefits are easy to explain and predict. A reliable source of revenue benefits can be very attractive to a revenue assurance team. But this predictability is the very reason why these tasks are not part of revenue assurance proper. Assurance is about reducing and managing risk, not about fixing known recurring errors. That kind of work is not a source of assurance and is not a source of new value for the business. It is just a part of the normal processes, no different to any other of the million activities performed in telcos on a regular basis. Focusing nominal revenue assurance efforts on predictable low-level error management takes resources away from proper risk management. It also begs the question of who is meant to be assuring the people in revenue assurance performing the routine operational tasks, and hence making sure they do not make mistakes.

Although it is called revenue assurance, it has more in common with cutting costs than generating revenues. The only limit to generating revenues is how much customers want to buy. If you can persuade customers to buy more, then you can sell them more. On the other hand, you can cut and cut and cut, but eventually you will run out of things to cut. If you cut too far, it reduces profits instead of increasing them. The same is true of revenue assurance, in that you can plug leak after leak, but eventually you will run out of leaks to plug. Yes, I know that next year there will be new products, and people will make new mistakes… but it does not follow that new leaks will occur rapidly enough, and in large enough volumes, to sustain the demand for revenue assurance in pure financial terms. Either revenue assurance is driving down leakage or it is not. If it is, then there will be fewer leaks in future to fix. If it is not, then either do more assurance to make more money, or do no more assurance because the additional profit that would be made is less than the additional cost of the extra assurance.

In the real world, if a manager cuts a cost, they do not get a bonus each year for the rest of their lives. They get a pat on the back in the year when the cost was cut, and next year’s budget will assume a lower cost base. This means the manager has to find new ways to cut costs if he wants to impress people. Which is why it gets harder and harder. The same is true of revenue assurance. If revenue assurance generates a few million for the company one year, it should be harder to do it next year. If the problems were fixed, then next year revenue assurance needs to find new kind of leakages to fix, and not just congratulate itself for what it did last year. On the other hand, if the problems were not fixed, and the revenue assurance teams needs to expend regular and predictable effort on managing the problems, then they are not problems at all – just a part of the normal business process. In this case, the “revenue assurance” team is just milking a specific kind of operational responsibility and saying it adds value when in reality it is no different to any other operational responsibility. Saying that the money would “leak” if they did meet the operational responsibility is no kind of response. You could describe any activity as plugging a “leak” if you rationalise that the business would be financially worse off if nobody did it… and that would mean sales, marketing, network operations, Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all would end up working for the revenue assurance department!

The challenge for any revenue assurance team is to have a process, without becoming part of the routine day-to-day processes it is there to assure. That means knowing how to ask a good question, without knowing what the answer will be. It does not mean asking the same question over and over because the answer is a good one for revenue assurance, in that the sense that the same check will regularly discover the same kind of leakage. When revenue assurance asks questions it knows the answer to, it means it is not asking more fundamental questions on the root causes of problems. Part of the reason for all the nonsense spouted about the value of revenue assurance is fear. People fear that they will lose their job, will not get exec backing, will not get sufficient budget etc unless they can show the value they add. The downside is that they often manipulate the data to suit an inappropriate model for revenue assurance. For example, a simplistic but false assumption is that revenue assurance generates revenues, so should be subject to the same kinds of revenue targets as applied to other revenue-generating departments in the business. It is often easier to distort revenue assurance results in order to satisfy this inappropriate model, than it is to explain why the model is wrong in the first place. Following the logic to its natural conclusion, that means the revenue assurance team is doing its job if it generates predictable returns by doing recurring operational tasks, and is not doing its job if it drives resolution of root causes or moves on to look, with unpredictable results, for faults elsewhere. The worst thing that can happen is that a business becomes “experienced” with the wrong model of revenue assurance. If somebody wants to change the remit, to cover new things, unlock new value, address risks that have yet to be addressed… then they run into the obstacle of experience. Experience shows there is great value in resolving the errors in places that revenue assurance already looks, so why divert resources to look elsewhere? Experience shows that the business cannot be trusted to undertake certain kinds of operational responsibility without making mistakes, so the revenue assurance department had better hold on to responsibility for those tasks. Experience shows that the challenging targets set by management are always met by revenue assurance, so why argue for a reduction in targets as a way to get the revenue assurance team to address the root causes once and for all, instead of routinely managing the symptoms of broken processes? So managing by results is a flawed way of looking at revenue assurance. The businesses that peddle their wares by promising these results are allowing themselves to become part of the problem, not the solution. The irony here is that revenue assurance is all about gathering data, but you manage it by managing the immeasurable – what you do not know. Controlling risk is recognizing that there are some things you do not know but would like to know. You cannot manage or control risk by pretending you know everything to begin with.

Many objectives can be attained even though management of progress cannot be measured. If a group of scientists work on a cure for cancer, I do not expect them to measure their percentage progress towards the cure on a project plan. That does not mean they are not making sensible and informed decisions about where best to spend their efforts and what lines of research might generate the most useful results. It just means they do not do so with the benefit of certainty. The same is true of any discipline that deals with an absence of knowledge. Reframing the problem in terms of certain knowledge – think of the vendors that promise if you buy their tools then you will know everything – is misguided. Sometimes the cost of getting knowledge can be higher than the benefits that result from it. And focusing on getting certain and deep knowledge of some things may distract attention from the pressing need to gain knowledge elsewhere. The trick for revenue assurance is to guide the business not towards the elimination of risk, but to the right level of risk. That means spreading the assurance net wide to cover all risk, but not necessarily delving deep into the specific operational details. Investments like that are impossible to justify in terms of simple and measurable ROI and payback period. Let us just hope there is some room for sensible decisions not based on ROI and payback, even if it makes us feel out of control. The truth is that when it comes to managing ignorance, appearing to be in control is more harmful than admitting its limits.

Subex Kills Azure, Gives Life To Data Integrity

2007 has been a good year for people paid to market Subex. At the start of the year, Subex Azure rebranded all their products in an attempt to emphasise their role as pioneers of the ROC, the Revenue Operations Centre. Now, after a long wait, Subex has decided to eliminate the last reminder of the Azure takeover, by changing its name from Subex Azure to just Subex.

Along with the name change comes a new look. According to Sanjeev Gadre, Vice President – Marketing, Subex Ltd,

“The stylised ‘X’ in the new Subex logo stands for the `X’ factor that sets Subex apart in its domain. The colours purple and yellow are warm and reiterate Subex’s vigour and passion. The usage of the lowercase type is representative of the company’s youthful dynamism. The straight and thick lines are evocative of the strength with which the company leads the industry.”

They obviously put quite a lot of thought into the new logo. There was I thinking that the X marks the graves of all those businesses that Subex has acquired along the way...

The strange thing about the timing of the rebrand is that it comes just after another interesting move by Subex. Just a few days earlier Subex launched a new Data Integrity Management (DIM) Practice. The press release uses the old Subex Azure logo [cold red and black, elderly upper case type, wonky thin lines representing weakness, a circle representing the '0' factor that made them no better than their rivals...] when you would think they might delay a few days and present a fresh image for this new venture. The DIM (note to Subex marketeers: not a good acronym if you are selling intelligence) Practice has the potential to be a new and vital source of revenues for the business. Data integrity is a natural complement to Subex's other offerings, and is an entry point for a wide market that could easily extend beyond telcos to other industries. Perhaps the timing reflects Subex's lack of confidence when attempting organic growth. The conventional play from Subex would be to buy an established data integrity business to force its way into the market. After recent purchases and contract wins by rivals, perhaps Subex felt a need to respond by competing across a broader range of services, but were unable to identify a suitable target for acquistion. Whatever the motivation, it will be interesting to see Subex's level of ambition for this practice. Data integrity may just be pitched as a low-key way to augment revenues from existing customers, or it may be used as a genuine sprearhead into new customers. A lot will depend on whether Subex restricts the scope of the data integrity practice to areas around their core competencies, like network inventory, or whether they pitch themselves as offering expertise relevant to data across the whole enterprise. If Azure was an autumn leaf that has been swept away, then the new Data Integrity Practice is an acorn, waiting to grow.

Revenue Assurance Got Hot! (And Old)

Far be it from me to suggest you can trust everything in a Gartner report, but their hype cycles are an interesting idea. They report on how mature, and useful, technology is. The idea is to penetrate the hype associated with new technologies and work out when they become genuinely useful and deliver something worthwhile. So it is interesting that this year Gartner has moved revenue assurance from hype to hot. More precisely, they are saying that revenue assurance is now part of the establishment for carrier networks. Which I guess means that now it is the norm, rather than a novelty. Perhaps this is the time to finally bury all those clichés about revenue assurance being new, a revolution, a buzzword... Just because it is new for some people, does not make it new. Put another way, revenue assurance is officially old news. Revenue assurance grew up, moved out of its parents' home, and found a proper job that pays the rent. It must be time to stop selling it with hype, and time to get on with the real business of doing it... unless you have been doing it for a while already, in which case it is time to keep up the hard work and pay the rent...

The Year In Revenue Assurance

A year ago, I proclaimed December 2 to be International Revenue Assurance Day. I did not ask permission from anyone else, I just did it. Nobody complained so I assume you are all happy with the decision ;)

One year on, I have a cold, and it is raining in my part of the world, so celebrations have been muted. Nevertheless, here is a lowdown on what has happened in the world of Revenue Assurance over the last year.

December 2006
US firm TMNG buys Cartesian, the niche revenue assurance software and consulting business

January 2007
Subex Azure rebrands their products
with names that sound like STDs

February
The UK television phone poll scandal begins with the admission that X-Factor voters were overcharged

March
The phone poll scandal rolls on, with Vodafone UK unable to deliver SMS votes in time

April
EMI agrees to sell DRM-free music via Apple's iTunes which begs the question of how much telcos will be able to charge for music in future

Meanwhile, Vodafone UK admits to another cock-up, this time with revenue share

And elsewhere, prepay vouchers worth a quarter of a million dollars are stolen from Ghana Telecommunications stores

May
Eurocrats agree to cap roaming rates

June
cVidya beats rivals Subex Azure by securing a revenue assurance contract with BT

July
East buys West once again, when Patni acquires Logan-Orviss

Fed up with the fantasy world of self-appointed revenue assurance certification bodies, I finally stop biting my lip and start complaining about GRAPA

August
Back in the real world of telecoms standard-setting bodies, the TMF publishes its new revenue assurance KPI standard

September
The good news is that the annual Subex Azure/Analysys revenue assurance survey comes out with the same conclusion as always: that there is lots more money to be made by Subex Azure and everyone else working in revenue assurance

The bad news is that Subex Azure has to downgrade its revenue and profits forecast after a major customer delays expenditure

And the not sure if good or bad news is that Portugese firm WeDo buys Cape and claims to become the world leader in revenue assurance as a result

October
It is looking like a year to forget for Vodafone UK as they suffer yet more problems with billing

The problem of DRM and revenue assurance for music downloads is solved by Radiohead, who allow their fans to pay whatever they like in exchange for their new album

The spending spree continues at WeDo, which acquires Praesidium

November
Indian regulator TRAI demands refunds for complaining customers, showing no sympathy for telcos that cannot provide data to substantiate their bills

Just before close of business on November 30th, UK regulator Ofcom delivers the draft of its new version of the metering and billing accuracy standard, a mere six months behind schedule... but I have not had time to read it all yet because I keep falling asleep (though it looks pretty much like the same old stuff)

Staying on the topic of the same old stuff... GRAPA finally issue the 'much needed' standards they promised, after many months of cutting and pasting the content from President Mattison's book... how very democratic of them :P


Phew, what a lot has happened. Revenue assurance is a year older, but is it any wiser?